According to a recent eMarketer forecast, growth in spending on online display ads will outstrip that for paid search through 2014, though search will continue to take the greater share of dollars. In 2010, both search and display will see increases greater than the rise in total US online ad spending, estimated at 13.9%. But between 2011 and 2014, the study projects online display spending will grow faster than overall online spending, while search spending will lag slightly behind.
| US Online Display & Search Ad Spending Growth (% Change) | ||||||
| Ad Spending Change | ||||||
| Type | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Online Display | -3.4% | 13.9 | 10.5 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| Search | 1.4% | 15.6 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| Total | 4.5% | 17.0 | 14.0 | 19.2 | 12.8 | 17.0 |
| Source: eMarketer, November 2010; (Display includes banner, rich media & video; search includes paid listings, contextual links, paid inclusion & SEO) | ||||||
The increase in display advertising will be driven partly by the dramatic rise predicted in online video advertising, set to grow by at least 34% every year through 2014. Banner ads will experience more moderate gains of between 7% and 16.2% annually, while rich media spending will stagnate. In 2010, eMarketer estimates US advertisers will spend $12.37 billion on paid search, compared with $8.88 billion on online display ads. Search will still get the most dollars in 2014, at $18.84 billion, but display will have closed the gap somewhat and reach $15.92 billion in spending that year.
| US Online Display and Search Ad Spending (Billion Dollars) | ||||||
| Type | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Online display | $7.50 | 8.88 | 10.12 | 12.06 | 13.61 | 15.92 |
| Search | 10.70 | 12.37 | 13.59 | 15.43 | 17.00 | 18.84 |
| Source: eMarketer, November 2010; (Display includes banner, rich media & video; search includes paid listings, contextual links, paid inclusion & SEO) | ||||||
David Hallerman, eMarketer principal analyst, concludes that “… much of the display ad spending gains are new dollars coming online… part of a bigger trend towards more spending on branding, rather than spending focused on direct response alone… ”
The analysis predicts branding-oriented online advertising will increase its share of the US total from 36.3% this year to 41.4% by 2014, with direct response making up a smaller part of the pie. Display’s high growth rates, and especially the dramatic growth expected in online video advertising, will be the main factor behind this trend.
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