RIOT dropped another investor presentation. They update this monthly which lets you see how things are changing.
One of the slides, slide 19, hadn’t been updated since last year as far as I can tell. It shows their own estimated forward returns as a monthly profit, payback period, and cumulative return until the miners turn off. It’s based on whatever assumptions they want to use, but they do detail the assumptions on slide 28.
Unbelievably, their cumulative profit estimates actually went up since the last time they updated this slide, even though every bit of reality has turned out worse: BTC price way down, global hashrate growing faster than the estimates, behind deployment schedule, and unit cost of power way up.
Take a look at how their assumptions changed though:
- Miners previously had a 5 year lifetime, now 10. Profit is now over 10 years too.
- Miners were previously 110TH/s, now 140TH/s.
- Previously “constant bitcoin price”. Now “starting at $25,000, increasing to $200,000 by 2032”.
Assumptions can be whatever you want them to be I guess, but:
- The miners RIOT just turned off ran for just over 2 years. 10 years seems high.
- The miners are I think now entirely S19J Pros. These are all 110TH, not 140TH.
- BTC isn’t $25k today. Going to $200k by 2032 is 10 years of 23% annualized returns.
If the only way they can make the chart look positive is to get 10 years of 23% annualized BTC price increases, they must know the gig is up.
Even if this magic $200k BTC price were to happen:
- They calculate cumulative profit in this scenario as $1372M over 10 years, but the price of BTC is $200,000 at the end of that period, so that’s only the equivalent of buying 6,860 BTC today and waiting 10 years. That would only cost $141M, about $1/share.
- Very unlikely that the network hash rate would rise by the assumed 10EH / month in this scenario. It’s already up 43EH this year, in a major bear market.
Reprinted from Reddit
BASED ON OUR EXPERIENCES – DO NOT TRUST CHAD HARRIS
Chad Everett Harris, Whinstone, Riot Blockchain, Northern Data AG accused of accounting fraud Read that article here.
Chad Harris defaults on million dollar loan, click here to learn more. Be sure to read the court doc. It’s a hoot, He tries to play the victim. The judge ain’t buying it.
Chad Everett Harris owned this business while defaulting on loans and invoices. Click here to learn more.
Chad Everett Harris is a porn spammer? We believe he did that while sending email like these to the people he owed money to.